Estimation of the Stress-Strength Reliability for Exponentiated Pareto Distribution Using Median and Ranked Set Sampling Methods

In reliability analysis, the stress-strength model is often used to describe the life of a component which has a random strength (X) and is subjected to a random stress (Y). In this paper, we considered the problem of estimating the reliability R=P [Y<X] when the distributions of both stress and strength are independent and follow exponentiated Pareto distribution. The maximum likelihood estimator of the stress strength reliability is calculated under simple random sample, ranked set sampling and median ranked set sampling methods. Four different reliability estimators under median ranked set sampling are derived. Two estimators are obtained when both strength and stress have an odd or an even set size. The two other estimators are obtained when the strength has an odd size and the stress has an even set size and vice versa. The performances of the suggested estimators are compared with their competitors under simple random sample via a simulation study. The simulation study revealed that the stress strength reliability estimates based on ranked set sampling and median ranked set sampling are more efficient than their competitors via simple random sample. In general, the stress strength reliability estimates based on median ranked set sampling are smaller than the corresponding estimates under ranked set sampling and simple random sample methods.     

电子计价秤示值误差测量结果不确定度评定

本文介绍ACS-15电子计价秤示值误差测量结果不确定度的评定方法,并通过实际测量,计算出7.5kg秤量点的标准不确定度、合成标准不确定度及扩展不确定度。     

整体式挤压油膜阻尼器对管道振动抑制试验

针对管道振动现象，设计了一种整体式挤压油膜阻尼器并分析其刚度影响规律。利用SAP2000软件模拟仿真阻尼减振效果。搭建二维门型管道振动试验台，在管道上安装整体式挤压油膜阻尼器，研究整体式挤压油膜阻尼器控制管道振动的影响规律。结果表明：整体式挤压油膜阻尼器安装在激振源处且与激振力平面平行时的减振效果最佳，较原始振动降幅达51.83%；安装在激振源处且与激振力平面垂直时的减振效果最差；安装两个整体式挤压油膜阻尼器减振效果优于安装一个整体式挤压油膜阻尼器；安装在激振源处的减振效果优于安装在远离激振源的效果。     

高稳高效海上风电安装平台关键制造技术研究

海上风电作为可再生清洁能源之一,受到世界各国的高度重视与大力发展。我国将海上风电提升至解决能源危机、减缓气候变化、调整能源结构的国家战略高度,到2030年我国单位国内生产总值二氧化碳排放将比2005年下降65%以上,非化石能源占一次能源消费比重将达到25%左右。安装平台不足将是我国海上风电场无法如期建成投产的主要障碍。对自升自航式海上风电安装平台系列高端装备及其设计制造的三大技术难题——腿站立作业易“失稳”、大平台大跨距大倾覆力矩自升易“失控”、高空吊装巨型叶片逾百螺栓精准定位易“失准”,以及焊缝缺陷修复和局部裂纹损伤的激光锻造修复再制造进行了介绍,研制的具有不同规格的系列装备在中国、英国、丹麦、德国等国家的著名海上风电场建设应用情况良好。     

Ship length distribution modeling on China offshore and ability evaluation of radar ship classification

Radial size estimation using radar high-resolution range profiles(HRRPs) and heading angle estimation are the main means for ship classification.The classification ability is closely related to the range resolution of the radar,precision of radial size estimation,and prior distribution of ship lengths in different offshore areas.We collected the AIS information on about 30 000 ships and their lengths in the four offshore areas of China in the ship information net of China.By fitting the data of ship lengths in each offshore area,it is found that the Weibull distributions provide good-of-fitness to the ship lengths and the parameters in individual area are rather different.Based on the prior distributions of ship lengths,we derived the quantitative relationship between the correct classification probability of big-moderate-small ships and the estimate error of ship radial size.The results indicate that the condition for the big-moderate-small correct classification probability in the offshore areas of China to be up to 90% is that the estimate errors of the ship radial size estimates falls into the interval(-12.67 m,9.41 m) when the heading angle of the ship is between ±75 degrees.     

Advances in analysis of total uncertainties in a semi‐invasive residual stress measurement method

The ability to characterise residual stress distribution accurately and over different length scales, particularly deep into an engineering part, plays a significant role in assessing structural integrity. Two most commonly used techniques to measure residual stress fields deep into engineering components include neutron diffraction (ND) and deep‐hole drilling (DHD). As the measurements depend on several physical quantities, they are susceptible to error. The error or uncertainties may turn substantial and compromise the suitability of the results. Although noninvasive, the neutron diffraction technique is neither readily available nor portable and is limited to approximately 60‐mm‐thick specimen; errors associated with results become unacceptable at greater flight paths. Moreover, a mock‐up representing the engineering component is normally used in the ND technique. In contrast, the DHD technique is portable and measures residual stresses with high spatial resolution. An error propagation technique was applied to develop an error analysis procedure taking into consideration various stages of the DHD method and successfully applied to different DHD measurements. An essential feature comprising the effect of plasticity due to the creation of reference hole in the DHD procedure has not yet been taken into account in the error analysis procedure. This paper briefly describes how the uncertainties due to the creation of the initial reference hole can be determined. The effect of plasticity in the drilling procedure is quantified in this study. This error is combined with other sources of error and formulated to determine the total error. An incremental DHD technique was used to measure the complex triaxial residual stress field in an as‐welded circular disc, and the measured data were used to illustrate the total error using the error analysis method developed in the study.     

Availability growth models and verification of power equipment

The general availability growth models for large scale complicated repairable system such as electric generating units, power station auxiliaries, and transmission and distribution installations are presented. The calculation formulas for the maintenance coefficient, mathematical expressions for general availability growth models, ways for estimating, and fitting on checking the parameters of the model are introduced. Availability growth models for electric generating units, power station auxiliaries, and transmission and distribution installations are given together with verification examples for availability growth models of 320–1000 MW nuclear power units and 1000 MW thermal power units, 200–1000 MW power station auxiliaries, and 220–500 kV transmission and distribution installations. The verification results for operation availability data show that the maintenance coefficients for electric generating units, power station auxiliaries, transmission and distribution installations conform to the power function, and general availability growth models conform to rules of availability growth tendency of power equipment.     

Self-information-based weighted CUSUM charts for monitoring Poisson count data with varying sample sizes

In many applications, the Poisson count data with varying sample sizes are monitored using statistical process control charts. Among these applications, the weighted CUSUM charts are developed to deal with the effect of the varying sample sizes. However, some of them use limited information of the sample size or the count data while assigning the weights. To gain more information of the process, the self-information weight functions are developed based on both the sample size and the observed count data. Then, the weighted CUSUM charts are proposed with the self-information-based weight. Simulation studies show the self-information-based weighted CUSUM charts perform better than the benchmark methods in detecting small shifts. Moreover, the performance of proposed method with estimated parameters is investigated via simulation. Finally, an example is given to illustrate the application of the proposed weighted CUSUM charts.     

The effect of measurement error on the performance of Mann-Whitney and Signed-Rank nonparametric control charts

Mann-Whitney and Signed-Rank control charts are two well-known nonparametric charts used for controlling the center of the process when the distribution of the process parameter is unknown or nonnormal. Considering the effect of measurement error on the performance of control charts, the mentioned effect with additive model is investigated on Mann-Whitney and Signed-Rank charts. Furthermore, a comparison is made between the two charts and a Shewhart-type $\overline{\mathrm{X}}$ chart (as a parametric one) in the presence of the error. To do so, a simulation program is used and average run length (ARL) of the charts are calculated under three distributions. The results for all three distributions show that the existence of measurement error weakens the performances of both nonparametric charts and larger values of the variance of the error will increase the effect. A numerical example is also discussed to show the effect on the performance of the charts. Multiple measurements is used as a way to decrease the effect of measurement error. Knowing the fact that it requires extra time and money, it can be used in real cases depending on the financial limitations of the user.     

基于集员未知输入观测器的风力机桨距执行器故障诊断

风力机一般放置在恶劣的环境中,其桨距执行器极易出现故障。文中针对一类含有未知但有界干扰和噪声的风力机系统的桨距执行器故障问题,设计了集员未知输入观测器对桨距的执行器故障进行检测并分离。采用气动机理和现代辨识原理建立风力机系统模型,通过优化未知输入观测器设计对系统中的干扰解耦,基于中心对称多胞体估计不考虑故障时残差的区间包络,并将其作为残差估计的上下动态阈值,实现状态估计。在上述基础上提出了利用一组集员未知输入观测器进行故障诊断的策略。仿真结果表明,在实验过程中,文中所设计的集员未知输入观测器准确地诊断出了风力机桨距执行器的3阶和5阶线性系统在发生突变故障和缓慢时变故障的时间和位置,证明了所提故障诊断策略的有效性。